Abstract:Objective To explore the related risk factors of cerebral infarction in the elderly patients during perioperative period of osteoarthroplasty and develop a risk prediction model.Methods By a 1[DK]∶2 matched case-control study,102 elderly patients with cerebral infarction during perioperative period of bone and joint replacement from January 2013 to November 2019 were selected as case group,and 204 patients with the same operation without cerebral infarction were served as control group.After univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to screen out the independent risk factors of cerebral infarction,the prediction model was constructed,and its predictive ability was evaluated.Results Multi-factor logistic regression analysis showed that hypertension( OR=2.177,95%CI :1.236-3.834, P=0.007),the intraoperative hypotension ( OR=2.837,95%CI :1.418-5.673, P=0.003) and the insufficient postoperative blood volume ( OR=2.129,95%CI :1.163-3.897, P=0.014) were statistically independently related to the occurrence of perioperative cerebral infarction.The fitting prediction model was as follows,Logit P=-2.745+0.778X1+1.043X2+0.756X3(X1:hypertension,X2:the intraoperative hypotension,X3:the insufficient postoperative blood volume),and sensitivity,specificity,and accuracy rate of it were respectively 72.9%,90.6%,85.0%.Conclusions Intraoperative hypotension,insufficient postoperative blood volume and hypertension were the influential factors of perioperative cerebral infarction.The risk prediction model can be used to predict the perioperative cerebral infarction in the elderly patients during perioperative period of osteoarthroplasty.